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Title: Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia
Authors: Smith MA; Canfell K
Categories: Cancer Type - Cervical Cancer
Early Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis - Technology and/or Marker Testing in a Clinical Setting
Year: 2017
Journal Title: Papillomavirus Research
Volume: 3
Page number start: 134
Page number end: 141
Abstract: Cytology-based cervical screening appears to have had a limited effect on the incidence of adenocarcinoma, however HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening will likely play a role in reducing future burden. Using Australia as an example, we estimated the future burden (2015–2040) of adenocarcinoma in the absence of other interventions; and the impact of HPV vaccination (introduced 2007) and HPV-based screening (commencing 2017). Future burden was estimated considering underlying trends in adenocarcinoma, using national data (1982– 2010). The relative reduction in adenocarcinoma due to HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening was derived from observed clinical data. Adenocarcinoma incidence rates have been increasing since the early-mid 2000s (average annual increases from 3.0%(25–49 years) −8.1%(20–24 years)). If these trends continue, rates would increase from 1.4 to 2.4/ 100,000 in < 50 years and from 2.2 to 4.4/100,000 in 50+ years by 2040. Taking into account coverage, HPV vaccination will reduce 2040 incidence by 36–39%, mainly in women < 50 years (61% reduction). Taking into account uncertainties in trends and screening effectiveness, HPV-based screening will reduce incidence by an additional 19–43%, mainly in women 50+ years (additional 30–68% reduction). Together, these interventions will reduce incidence by 55–81%
Division: Cancer Research Division
Funding Body: KC receives support from the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia (CDFs APP1007994 and APP1082989).
DOI: 10.1016/j.pvr.2017.04.003
Appears in Collections:Research Articles

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